Population Growth
From Missiopedia
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An estimated 6 million babies were born in the year of Christ’s death, AD 33. By 2000, nearly 130 million were born annually. By 2025, this number is likely to fall slightly, but will still be a staggering 122 million. Meanwhile, in 2000, 54 million people died. By 2025, deaths will climb to 70 million per year. The net increase (births minus deaths) was thus 73 million people in AD 2000 and will be 57 million people in AD 2025.
1 January 2008 the population on the earth has grown to 6.669.705.650.
The distribution of the net increase, of course, is very uneven. Just 1% was in the “more developed regions,” where births and deaths are fairly stable (a net increase of just under 1 million). Over 98% of the increase was in the less-developed world (72 million births). Of the world’s increase, 24% was in Africa and 62% in Asia. Much of this was in rapidly expanding urban areas and slums. On the other hand, Europe’s population is losing a net of 1 million people yearly (most of this in Eastern Europe, declining 1.3 million people yearly).
By 2025, global population will have risen to 7.9 billion. The more developed regions will see their population declining by 1.8 million people per year. Most of this decline will be in Europe, which will lose 2.5 million people per year (this massive loss offset globally by births elsewhere). Europe’s decline will still be mostly in the East (1.7 million), but also in the south (0.5 million) and west (0.3 million). Most of the world’s population increase, again, will be in Africa (40%) and Asia (51%). Births and deaths are essentially not controllable in the short-term future. Most of the births are occurring in places where people simply have no concept of the idea of birth control, let alone the practicalities, complexities or ethics of it. The enormous numbers are the dominant force shaping our world, outweighing everything from technological change to religious conversion, and make the future somewhat easier to predict.
Chart 1 below graphically illustrates the results of this change. By 2025, the bulk of the world’s population will be in Asia. This dramatic change will have global implications. For example, demographic growth is the single biggest influence on the economies of the world. India and China, the two most populous nations, are striving to feed their people and lift them out of poverty. As they do, they will create markets, innovations, and products desirable to people and companies in the West. Already much of what Westerners consume is made in Asia. This is simple numbers: when North Americans, for example, represent just 4.9% of the world, and only 2% of the world’s increase—in other words, a very small share of the world’s population growing smaller all the time—more of the global economy will inevitably if gradually shift to other places, particularly as those other places adopt more open and advanced economic, political and technical systems.
Likewise, demographic growth is the single biggest force in the growth of any given religion. For example, parents having babies add more Christians to the world than all other evangelistic forces combined.
There are no real reasonable scenarios by which these trends will change significantly during the next 25 years. There are some wild cards: the rapid distribution of some highly lethal plague (such as a virulent form of avian flu) would be one. Still, mission and church growth strategies should generally plan for a world growing ever more African and Asian, and less Western. Further, the incredible birth rate in some countries means we can’t just evangelize once—about every 20 years the entire process must be done again. This makes it essential to establish a local church able to continue the task of evangelization indefinitely. Mission must be organic, based on a harvest model rather than a mass-production model. No group can be considered ‘reached’ unless this is accomplished—without it, the church will die out over a few generations unless there is continuous outside assistance.
Table 1 below presents the populations of each region over the period 1900 to 2050, along with each region’s share of the global population. With Europe and America continuing to represent a declining percentage of the world’s populations, mission recruiters need to be looking to Africa and Asia for more and more mission recruits. By 2050, South-central Asia in particular (making up over a quarter of the world’s population) should be a primary source of new cross-cultural workers. This implies the need to establish recruiting and training centers all across the region, particularly throughout India. Workers will still come from other parts of the world, but we should see increasing numbers from Asia and Africa based on demographics alone.
Table 2 below will help mission strategists consider their own strategies. The demographic growth rates are given for each period. For the church to expand, it must be growing at a rate greater than the percentage rates given here. So, for example, in Northern America a church must yearly add one new member for every 100 existing members if it is to increase its role in the region. Of even more interest would be the growth rate of the specific community the church is in.
In later sections, we will compare the growth rate of various factors (including religions) to the growth rates shown here. A green dot will indicate a trend growing faster than the demographic population, whereas a red dot will indicate a trend that is shrinking by comparison.
[edit] Table1
| Name | AD 1900 | % | AD 1925 | % | AD 1950 | % | AD1975 | % | AD 2000 | % | AD 2025 | % | AD 2050 | % |
| World | 1,616.2 | 1,991.2 | 2,519.5 | 4,073.7 | 6,085.6 | 7,905.2 | 9,075.9 | |||||||
| AFRICA | 107.6 | 7% | 154.1 | 8% | 224.1 | 9% | 415.8 | 10% | 812.5 | 13% | 1,344.5 | 17% | 1,937.0 | 21% |
| Eastern Africa | 27.9 | 2% | 42.2 | 2% | 65.0 | 3% | 125.8 | 3% | 255.7 | 4% | 447.7 | 6% | 678.7 | 7% |
| Middle Africa | 18.1 | 1% | 21.8 | 1% | 26.3 | 1% | 47.0 | 1% | 96.0 | 2% | 184.3 | 2% | 303.3 | 3% |
| Northern Africa | 28.2 | 2% | 38.7 | 2% | 53.3 | 2% | 97.9 | 2% | 175.1 | 3% | 256.0 | 3% | 311.9 | 3% |
| Southern Africa | 5.5 | 0% | 9.3 | 0% | 15.6 | 1% | 29.3 | 1% | 52.1 | 1% | 55.1 | 1% | 56.0 | 1% |
| Western Africa | 27.9 | 2% | 42.1 | 2% | 63.8 | 3% | 115.9 | 3% | 233.6 | 4% | 401.4 | 5% | 587.0 | 6% |
| ASIA | 953.0 | 59% | 1,138.8 | 57% | 1,396.3 | 55% | 2,395.2 | 59% | 3,675.8 | 60% | 4,728.1 | 60% | 5,217.2 | 57% |
| Eastern Asia | 529.3 | 33% | 587.3 | 29% | 671.0 | 27% | 1,096.7 | 27% | 1,479.2 | 24% | 1,652.0 | 21% | 1,586.7 | 17% |
| South-central Asia | 313.3 | 19% | 393.6 | 20% | 496.1 | 20% | 876.1 | 22% | 1,484.6 | 24% | 2,098.7 | 27% | 2,495.0 | 27% |
| South-eastern Asia | 80.6 | 5% | 119.2 | 6% | 178.1 | 7% | 321.3 | 8% | 518.9 | 9% | 678.3 | 9% | 752.3 | 8% |
| Western Asia | 29.7 | 2% | 38.7 | 2% | 51.1 | 2% | 101.1 | 2% | 193.1 | 3% | 299.1 | 4% | 383.2 | 4% |
| EUROPE | 402.6 | 25% | 467.6 | 23% | 547.4 | 22% | 675.5 | 17% | 728.5 | 12% | 707.2 | 9% | 653.3 | 7% |
| Eastern Europe | 169.4 | 10% | 192.6 | 10% | 220.2 | 9% | 285.7 | 7% | 304.6 | 5% | 267.1 | 3% | 223.5 | 2% |
| Northern Europe | 58.0 | 4% | 66.8 | 3% | 77.3 | 3% | 88.2 | 2% | 94.2 | 2% | 101.7 | 1% | 105.6 | 1% |
| Southern Europe | 70.7 | 4% | 87.5 | 4% | 109.0 | 4% | 132.5 | 3% | 146.1 | 2% | 148.9 | 2% | 138.7 | 2% |
| Western Europe||align=right| 104.6 | 6% | 120.6 | 6% | 140.9 | 6% | 169.2 | 4% | 183.6 | 3% | 189.5 | 2% | 185.5 | 2% | |
| LATIN AMERICA | 65.1 | 4% | 103.5 | 5% | 167.3 | 7% | 322.4 | 8% | 522.9 | 9% | 696.5 | 9% | 782.9 | 9% |
| Caribbean | 6.9 | 0% | 10.7 | 1% | 17.0 | 1% | 27.1 | 1% | 37.5 | 1% | 44.7 | 1% | 46.4 | 1% |
| Central America | 18.0 | 1% | 25.8 | 1% | 37.3 | 1% | 79.2 | 2% | 136.0 | 2% | 185.7 | 2% | 209.6 | 2% |
| South America | 40.3 | 2% | 67.0 | 3% | 113.0 | 4% | 216.2 | 5% | 349.4 | 6% | 466.2 | 6% | 526.9 | 6% |
| NORTH AMERICA | 81.6 | 5% | 118.3 | 6% | 171.6 | 7% | 243.4 | 6% | 315.0 | 5% | 388.0 | 5% | 438.0 | 5% |
| PACIFIC | 6.2 | 0% | 8.9 | 0% | 12.8 | 1% | 21.3 | 1% | 30.9 | 1% | 40.8 | 1% | 47.6 | 1% |
| Australia-NZ | 4.6 | 0% | 6.8 | 0% | 10.1 | 0% | 16.7 | 0% | 22.9 | 0% | 28.9 | 0% | 32.7 | 0% |
| Melanesia | 1.4 | 0% | 1.8 | 0% | 2.3 | 0% | 3.9 | 0% | 6.9 | 0% | 10.5 | 0% | 13.2 | 0% |
| Micronesia | 0.1 | 0% | 0.1 | 0% | 0.1 | 0% | 0.3 | 0% | 0.5 | 0% | 0.7 | 0% | 0.8 | 0% |
| Polynesia | 0.1 | 0% | 0.2 | 0% | 0.2 | 0% | 0.4 | 0% | 0.6 | 0% | 0.8 | 0% | 0.8 | 0% |
Source: UN Population Reference Bureau, using medium forecasting model and rounding to nearest thousand, published as of 2005. AD 1900 data from the World Christian Database (www.worldchristiandatabase.org). AD 1925 data interpolated based on 1900 and 1950 data. Sub-region totals add up to regional totals, which in turn add up to global total.
[edit] Table2
Population growth by region.
| Name | 1900-25 | Rate | 1925-50 | Rate | 1950-75 | Rate | 1975-2000 | Rate | 2000-25 | Rate | 2025-50 | Net | ||
| World | 14,999,318 | 0.8 | 21,132,440 | 0.9 | 62,170,840 | 1.9 | 80,473,280 | 1.6 | 72,786,240 | 1.1 | 46,826,760 | 0.6 | ||
| AFRICA | 1,859,388 | 1.4 | 2,799,000 | 1.5 | 7,670,200 | 2.5 | 15,865,720 | 2.7 | 21,280,840 | 2.0 | 23,698,480 | 1.5 | ||
| Eastern Africa | 574,228 | 1.7 | 910,400 | 1.7 | 2,433,000 | 2.7 | 5,194,840 | 2.9 | 7,680,040 | 2.3 | 9,241,280 | 1.7 | ||
| Middle Africa | 148,600 | 0.8 | 181,520 | 0.8 | 826,200 | 2.3 | 1,962,120 | 2.9 | 3,531,600 | 2.6 | 4,760,680 | 2.0 | ||
| Northern Africa | 420,480 | 1.3 | 584,240 | 1.3 | 1,782,400 | 2.5 | 3,087,480 | 2.4 | 3,236,320 | 1.5 | 2,237,440 | 0.8 | ||
| Southern Africa | 150,240 | 2.1 | 252,840 | 2.1 | 547,160 | 2.5 | 910,640 | 2.3 | 122,680 | 0.2 | 34,760 | 0.1 | ||
| Western Africa | 565,840 | 1.7 | 870,000 | 1.7 | 2,081,440 | 2.4 | 4,710,640 | 2.8 | 6,710,200 | 2.2 | 7,424,320 | 1.5 | ||
| ASIA | 7,430,598 | 0.7 | 10,299,640 | 0.8 | 39,958,640 | 2.2 | 51,223,080 | 1.7 | 42,093,360 | 1.0 | 19,562,920 | 0.4 | ||
| Eastern Asia | 2,318,400 | 0.4 | 3,347,080 | 0.5 | 17,029,720 | 2.0 | 15,300,200 | 1.2 | 6,909,560 | 0.4 | -2,610,600 | -0.2 | ||
| South-central Asia | 3,210,880 | 0.9 | 4,099,640 | 0.9 | 15,200,360 | 2.3 | 24,340,920 | 2.1 | 24,562,760 | 1.4 | 15,853,360 | 0.7 | ||
| South-eastern Asia | 1,543,000 | 1.6 | 2,354,760 | 1.6 | 5,728,840 | 2.4 | 7,902,840 | 1.9 | 6,379,240 | 1.1 | 2,956,320 | 0.4 | ||
| Western Asia | 358,318 | 1.1 | 498,160 | 1.1 | 1,999,720 | 2.8 | 3,679,120 | 2.6 | 4,241,800 | 1.8 | 3,363,840 | 1.0 | ||
| EUROPE | 2,598,836 | 0.6 | 3,193,080 | 0.6 | 5,125,760 | 0.8 | 2,116,640 | 0.3 | -849,240 | -0.1 | -2,156,480 | -0.3 | ||
| Eastern Europe | 929,320 | 0.5 | 1,104,080 | 0.5 | 2,620,080 | 1.0 | 757,440 | 0.3 | -1,499,560 | -0.5 | -1,744,360 | -0.7 | ||
| Northern Europe | 354,280 | 0.6 | 418,360 | 0.6 | 436,720 | 0.5 | 237,880 | 0.3 | 300,680 | 0.3 | 157,040 | 0.2 | ||
| Southern Europe | 673,992 | 0.9 | 858,840 | 0.9 | 939,040 | 0.8 | 544,400 | 0.4 | 111,360 | 0.1 | -406,040 | -0.3 | ||
| Western Europe | 641,244 | 0.6 | 811,800 | 0.6 | 1,129,920 | 0.7 | 576,920 | 0.3 | 238,280 | 0.1 | -163,120 | -0.1 | ||
| LATIN AMERICA | 1,535,232 | 1.9 | 2,551,920 | 1.9 | 6,205,120 | 2.7 | 8,019,280 | 2.0 | 6,944,200 | 1.2 | 3,454,560 | 0.5 | ||
| Caribbean | 151,880 | 1.8 | 254,320 | 1.9 | 403,720 | 1.9 | 413,440 | 1.3 | 288,160 | 0.7 | 71,040 | 0.2 | ||
| Central America | 314,920 | 1.5 | 458,880 | 1.5 | 1,674,280 | 3.1 | 2,275,280 | 2.2 | 1,985,560 | 1.3 | 955,240 | 0.5 | ||
| South America | 1,068,432 | 2.1 | 1,838,720 | 2.1 | 4,127,120 | 2.6 | 5,330,560 | 1.9 | 4,670,480 | 1.2 | 2,428,280 | 0.5 | ||
| NORTH AMERICA | 1,468,060 | 1.5 | 2,131,520 | 1.5 | 2,872,080 | 1.4 | 2,862,040 | 1.0 | 2,922,600 | 0.8 | 1,996,680 | 0.5 | ||
| PACIFIC | 107,204 | 1.4 | 157,280 | 1.5 | 339,040 | 2.1 | 386,520 | 1.5 | 394,480 | 1.1 | 270,600 | 0.6 | ||
| Australia-NZ | 89,120 | 1.6 | 132,520 | 1.6 | 263,240 | 2.0 | 247,240 | 1.3 | 239,160 | 0.9 | 154,480 | 0.5 | ||
| Melanesia | 15,168 | 1.0 | 19,880 | 1.0 | 63,000 | 2.1 | 122,800 | 2.4 | 141,040 | 1.7 | 110,800 | 0.9 | ||
| Micronesia | 808 | 0.9 | 1,800 | 1.5 | 4,720 | 2.4 | 9,560 | 2.6 | 8,760 | 1.5 | 5,000 | 0.6 | ||
| Polynesia | 2,108 | 1.5 | 3,080 | 1.5 | 8,080 | 2.4 | 6,920 | 1.3 | 5,520 | 0.8 | 320 | 0.0 | ||
Source: UN Population Reference Bureau, using medium forecasting model and rounding to nearest thousand, published as of 2005. AD 1900 data from the World Christian Database (www.worldchristiandatabase.org). AD 1925 data interpolated based on 1900 and 1950 data.
